Ukrainian defense intelligence has stated that Russian forces are no longer capable of launching large-scale offensive actions and have primarily shifted to a defensive stance. However, Moscow is reportedly maintaining the current rate of missile attacks, despite an apparent reduction in resources.
In a televised interview on Monday, Defense Intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov explained that Russia is on the defensive across the entire frontline. “They have been preparing for defense all this time, and this is a serious factor that the Ukrainian command certainly takes into account when preparing for the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories,” Yusov stated.
The objective and intensity of Russian missile strikes have reportedly changed since the high-volume attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the winter. Yusov revealed that Russia is experiencing a shortage of certain types of missiles, notably the Kalibr.
“They are actively looking for ways to compensate for and change not only the Shaheds [Iranian-made attack drones]…They are looking for weapons all over the world. So far, they have not been very successful,” Yusov said, highlighting a possible desperation in the Russian ranks to replenish their diminished arsenal.
Despite these shortcomings, Yusov noted that the Russians are still “capable of sustaining the intensity of attacks,” for now. He speculated that they still possess large stockpiles of S-300 missiles, known for their potential for considerable destruction. Although the S-300 was designed as an anti-air weapon, Yusov mentioned that Russians have frequently used it in a ground-to-ground mode, a mode in which it lacks accuracy.
Yusov also pointed to a shift in Russian tactics on Ukraine’s northern border. The Russians are reportedly increasingly employing “subversive reconnaissance groups” that are probing border regions, with some allegedly firing on civilians in the northern region of Chernihiv.
In a separate note, Yusov mentioned Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko, whose public absence has sparked speculation. The Ukrainian official stated that Kyiv was aware of the “health problems” of Lukashenko, but he declined to elaborate on the topic “for various reasons.” Lukashenko has been conspicuously absent from public view since a recent visit to Moscow. His absence from a national celebration in the capital Minsk, marking the annual Day of the State Flag, Emblem, and Anthem of Belarus, has further fueled speculation.
As the conflict continues, these developments underline the shifting dynamics of the battlefield, painting a picture of a beleaguered Russia adjusting its tactics and a Ukraine bracing for the next phase of the conflict. The situation remains fraught with uncertainties and risks, with the international community closely monitoring the developments in this volatile region.
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